Why?
Indeed, one key aspect of trading that often keeps people engaged, even when they're predominantly losing money, is the intermittent nature of wins and losses. This pattern can lead to the "illusion of control" and the "gambler's fallacy." Here's how these psychological factors work:
Illusion of Control: This is a tendency for people to overestimate their ability to control events. In the context of trading, after a few successful trades, traders might start to believe that they have superior skills or a 'winning strategy.' They might attribute these wins to their knowledge or decision-making, even if they were primarily due to luck or favorable market conditions. This illusion can keep them trading, often with increased risk, even if their overall track record is negative.
Gambler's Fallacy: This is the belief that if a particular event occurs more frequently than normal during a given period, it's less likely to happen in the future or vice versa. For instance, after a string of losses, a trader might believe a win is 'due.' This misconception can lead them to continue trading, hoping for a big win, even when their overall strategy is unsuccessful.
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